Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
