Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
